Friday, February 22, 2013

A Puzzle

Here is a simple puzzle to develop your understanding and intuition.

You are faced with a problem in which you need to make a decision. For example, you might be choosing $u_0$. You can choose $u_0=0$ or $u_0=1$. One of these is optimal.

There is something "A" which you do not know. It could be either true or false.

If A is true then $u_0=1$ is definitely optimal (i.e. better than $u_0=0$).
If A is false then $u_0=1$ is also definitely optimal.

Can you therefore conclude that $u_0=1$ is optimal?

Thus